How good or bad will 2009 be?

Dani Rodrik at the Kennedy School has this to say:

"It will be a watershed year, ushering a new world economic order--with the disorder most likely coming first. I just don't have the foggiest idea what this new order will look like. [...] Here are four things that will determine how much doom and gloom is yet to come"

His four things are:

1.) Will the U.S. policy response be “bold” enough?
2.) Will Europe get its act together?
3.) Will China hold together?
4.) Will there be enough global economic cooperation?

My take on those four things are:
1.) definitely -- although more than fiscal and monetary stimulus we will need (as Rodrik points out) to put together a better social safety net to assuage fears of similar crises hitting again... like e.g. when the Fed is forced to mop up this excess liquidity it is producing now with these "bold" and unorthodox measures... and possibly gets the timing slightly wrong.
2.) unlikely.
3.) probably. Just probabilistically China has a very good track record of doing what it wants and pushing that through. Not to be confused with a good track record of respecting human rights, etc. I therefore find it unlikely that the Party's grip on power will slip and unrest will break out everywhere dividing the country
4.) I don't know and I don't care. This is the least relevant of Rodrik's points, I think. It seems to me that, as one big economy going into a tailspin dragged others with it so will one big economy emerging from the slump have a positive impact on others. I don't think that rising protectionism will do much to detract from that.

I would obviously add a stabilization of the US housing sector. As soon as that stabilizes, home equity loans will stabilize, consumers will be able to stop cutting back so severely, mortgage default rates will come down, mortgage backed securities will stop inflicting damage on banks' balance sheets (as an aside: the Fed will make some good coin on the MBS it is now buying), banks will start lending again with more secure balance sheets, and that will go a long way.

If the housing mkt ever stabilizes....