Thursday, February 5, 2009

Initial jobless claims

Initial jobless claims are out this morning:

Actual: 626,000
Previous: 591,000
Consensus: 580,000

626 thousand new people went to the unemployment office over the past week. That, ladies and gentlemen, is what the recession looks like. What I don’t get is how with a previous number of 591K, the consensus was for 580K new unemployment claims. Who are these people who think there would be less unemployed this week than last?

Goldman's "skinny" (a comment they send out on most pieces of economic data) on this:

"BOTTOM LINE: Another jump in claims shows continued deterioration in the labor market (though not directly relevant to tomorrow's payroll report) while companies managed even larger gains in output per hour worked than expected from those who remained on the job."

I remember reading an op-ed or something by Krugman in 2002 or so on how the US got out of the last recession and "productivity" was sortof the key. And I remember him railing against the use of the term "productivity" when what the reality is that people are being scared into losing their job and those who don't lose it are made to work longer, harder hours. B/c it's not like some crazy total-factor-productivity-enhancing (you like that?) supernew technology came out all of a sudden that caused a spike in people's productivity. And basically it amounts to saying: "Work harder and if you don't you're gonna lose your job and you don't have any say in this. And those who don't lose their jobs need to pick up the slack." AND, obviously these situations are sticky. Just because the downturn is over doesn't mean that firms will revise down their expectations from workers.

The bad news: Looks like we have the same situation again and workers will be permanently placed under more strain again.
The good news: If it's worked (haha, npi) in the past maybe we have a way out of the recession. Maybe we won't even have to, as Obama suggests, think what we can do for our country, maybe that thinking will be done by our companies for us and all we have to do is do what they tell us to.

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