Wednesday, May 19, 2010

No Plan B for the European Currency Union

Today Secretary Geithner was on CNBC (which, as you probably know, I think is, in general, idiocy squared) and Erin Burnett interviewed him regarding the prospects of the Euro.

MS. BURNETT: And do you have a plan if it falls apart, I mean,
Paul Volcker again today was saying he thinks that there are some real
risks to the European Union as a concept and others, perhaps, even to
the Euro itself? I know you're a believer that Europe will stay
together. But are you working on a contingency plan in case there is
a dissolution of the Euro?

SEC. GEITHNER: Again, I'll say what I said before, absolutely
Europe has the capacity to manage through this. They made a decision
to do it and I believe they have the capacity to do that. Obviously,
they're going through their challenges, but they can manage those
challenges.

Michael Mussa, former chief economist at the IMF, in his book “Argentina and the Fund” makes the argument that one reason why Argentina was such a shitshow was b/c there was never a plan B considered, an orderly exit from the currency board. So if what Geithner says is true and not just to calm markets while behind the scenes IMF and European Commission are working hard to formulate an exit strategy for Greece and others in their position, then that could be very bad news if the ECU does find itself in a tight spot and needs to break up.

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