I just looked at some of the major EM local stock markets versus their currencies. In general I would expect them to be movin
g together quite well. After all usually EM stock markets and EM currencies are both seen as risk assets and when it's risk on they both appreciate and when it's risk off they both depreciate, not to mention that you need local currency to buy local stock.
The data bear out this relationship for the most part. Bovespa, for example shows strong co-movement with the Real.
The Sensex is a little less well correlated, probably b/c of investment regulations.
In Russia we see a little bit of a divergence in June but since then the two have recoupled.
Here are some of the biggest other markets. Turkey:
Taiwan:
Thailand:
South Africa:
They all seem to price in similar things for the respective country. However, in Mexico we've seen a decisive break downwards at the end of August while the market, probably on the back of US strength, has mostly ground higher with just a recent correction.
And in Korea the market has sold off while the Won has kept appreciating.
To my eye the last two markets seem susceptible to repricing. What do the currency markets know that the equity markets don't yet reflect (or vice-versa)?
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