Friday, December 5, 2008

This is what the recession looks like


I'm a bit on hiatus b/c I'm at home studying for that stupid CFA exam but I just looked after getting up -- yes, when I'm on my own I go to bed at 3 and get up at 10, and yes I looked b/c both my friend Lauren and Jack the Ripper commented on it -- and the non-farm payroll numbers this morning were awful. The economy lost over 533,000 jobs in November. In October we lost 240,000. So yes, this is what the recession looks like. Unemployment is up to 6.7% (from 6.5%). Economist surveys suggest this could reach 8%. The WSJ writes this:
Indeed, Friday's numbers cap a series of bleak economic reports this week suggesting that after escaping a serious downturn so far, the U.S. faces the type of severe recession that occurred in the early 1980s rather than the relatively mild ones of the early 1990s and 2001.

So yes, this is what we're dealing with and it could get a lot worse over the next few months. On the other hand the economy is receiving massive stimulus from a number of sources: a big impending fiscal stimulus under the Obama administration (funded by taxing upper income strata, which have a relatively inelastic labor supply and a pretty low marginal propensity to consume, meaning they'll still work even if taxed higher and they still consume similar amounts even if they are relatively poorer), immense monetary easing -- interest rates will likely fall close to zero and the Fed is a) expaninng it balance sheet fast and furiously and b) printing money, something they haven't done in the 2000 or 90s recessions -- as well as a big stimulus from low commodity prices -- mostly metals and obviously oil. The stronger dollar is a bit worrying b/c it won't spur exports as much. So all in all the economy is likely to recover while therese numbers still start to look worse. Employment, for example, lags economic activity somewhat. What worries me more than the recesison itself (which does worry me) is that I suspect the brunt will be asymmetrically borne. That's what happened in 2001-2002. We came out of the recession okay but real income for middle and working class had fallen and much of the recovery was fuelled by increased productivity -- which is only a euphemism of squeezing more work out of fewer workers at lower wages (b/c it's not like we invented such great new ways of producing things right then and there.)

Anyways, what's the market say to this number?

JTR says: "IF STOCKS RALLY ON THIS NEWS, THE LOWS ARE IN"
Well, not exactly rallying but perhaps we hold that most recently established range. I wouldn't bet the non-farm on it though. The last hour could still break through any resistance on the downside, regardless of what happened during the rest of the day. Could be interesting.

No comments: